Storm Update, Wednesday Evening - January 4, 2022

In West County, thousands are already without power. Horicon School was closed today due to a road closure. We expect more road closures due to fallen trees and landslides in the near future, especially as the full weight of the storm rolls in within the next few hours. We are already witnessing high winds including wind gusts in excess of 60mph.

We are expecting at least three major storm events, resulting in three separate peak flows of the Russian River. The most recent NOAA forecast, released this afternoon, shows an initial flood peak in the Russian River at Guerneville of 32.9’ late Thursday evening. (Flood stage is 32’.)

***Importantly, NOAA is projecting a subsequent peak of 39.7’ late Sunday night due to the impact of the second storm event.***

Even more sobering, the River may not leave flood stage after the second peak. The long range NOAA forecast shows the River maintaining flood stage before beginning to climb again based on the impacts of the third storm. The third flood peak has the potential to be higher than the first or the second because it will be starting from a higher baseline. (But as always, forecasting is an imperfect science, and all of this information may change with tonight’s 9pm forecast or tomorrow’s 9am forecast. Bookmark the NOAA site and check each new update for the latest information!)

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